Monday, November 06, 2006

Wild West
Interesting article about the Phoenix housing market and the speculation that drove up prices. People are walking away from their deposits on new homes and "For Sale" sings are prevalent. It is interesting to hear "experts" who expect that the downturn will only last a matter of months. I think it will be years not months. The wild card that will determine the length and severity of the downturn will be finance. People who bought on speculation to "flip" houses, or could not afford the house to begin with, and used exotic mortgages to finance their acquisitions are the ones that will decide the future. If they walk away from their mortgages when they reset, the downturn will be ugly, (and watch for the herd mentality if people start defaulting). If the loans are refinanced the downturn will be modest. Phoenix will not be alone.

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