Friday, April 27, 2012

Timberland Preemption

Maybe it's me, but this paragraph from a cover letter to Wells Timberland's annual investor update reads like it's preparing investors for some unpleasant valuation news:
In the year ahead, we'll have an opportunity to assess the market's impact on Wells Timberland REIT when we conduct an appraisal of the REIT’s assets in order to publish an estimated per-share value. We can't predict what the new estimated share value may be. However, we know that it will not necessarily represent the value you should expect to receive once the REIT goes “full cycle” and completes a future liquidity event, such as listing our shares on an exchange or selling our assets and distributing the proceeds to you, our stockholders. It will simply be a “snapshot” of the per-share estimated value at a certain time, which will help our management team make the most informed decisions on behalf of you and your fellow stockholders as we continue to move forward. The per-share estimated value will also be temporary, since we plan to estimate the per-share value again each year.
It's smart of Wells to soft-pedal its upcoming valuation.  I want to caution that I am not making any estimates as to Timberland's upcoming valuation, and based on the above, and it does not appear that Timberland has yet conducted its appraisal of its assets.

There is encouraging news related to timber prices and housing.  Here is a link (via Calculated Risk) to some optimistic news from home builders.  Here is an except:
Below is a summary of selected stats for the six publicly-traded builders who have released results for the quarter ended in March.




SettlementsNet OrdersBacklog

3/20123/20113/20103/20123/20113/20103/20123/20113/2010
D.R. Horton4,2403,5164,2605,8994,9436,4386,1895,2816,314
NVR1,9241,6341,9193,1572,4032,9404,9093,6854,552
PulteGroup3,1173,1413,7954,9914,3454,3205,7985,1886,456
The Ryland Group8486889841,3579661,1672,0231,4651,915
Meritage Homes7596788081,1448401,0641,3009401,351
M/I Homes507439475764654765933747936
Total11,39510,09612,24117,31214,15116,69421,15217,30621,524
YOY % change12.9%-17.5%22.3%-15.2%22.2%-19.6%

On Tuesday the Commerce Department estimated that new SF home sales last quarter were up 16% (not seasonally adjusted) from the comparable quarter of last year. Recently, of course, there has been a pattern of upward revisions to preliminary, and historically during improving markets such revisions are commonplace (and in declining markets, downward revisions are common). I’d bet that when the April new home sales report is released, March’s sales estimate will be revised higher.
(Note that 2010 figures are skewed upward due to the one-time, new home buyer tax credit that expired in April 2010.) 

To me, it's hard to see how a 22% jump in new New Orders for homes and a 22% increase in order Backlog, along with an overall housing recovery, won't positively impact timber prices over time. 

Below is a chart of timber prices since 2007:


It looks like timber prices are up a small amount so far in 2012, but sawtimber, the wood used in home building, is still well off its 2007 high. 

Timberland's valuation will be subject to a variety of factors, many of which will be company-specific, and not directly related to the timber markets.   To me, it looks as if the macro economic outlook for timber, via a housing recovery, is the best it's been in a long time.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

I wonder if Leo Wells preferred stock will have the same "snapshot" taken when the common stock owners get the news of their haircut. Oh wait! he's taking his money out at par! To me it appears Wells Timberland Management organization gave up it's 27 million in fees to free up cash flow for his preferred stock redemptions. 10Q in June will tell the tale. Is Leo putting his capital to work along with his fellow stockholders or is he siphoning his own capital out before the snapshot gets taken? His money isn't dead. It's walking!

Rational Realist said...

The first quarter 10-Q should be available in mid-May. Before we through Leo completely under the bus, without the preferred investment Timberland would have lost its property in 2008 or 2009 as as the preferred investment allowed the REIT to repay debt. I'd like to see Wells sell this property and finish this deal.